Democratic Voter Enthusiasm Ahead of Republicans by Double Digits: Poll

Polling data just days before the U.S. presidential election has found a voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris more likely to benefit.
Gallup polling released on Thursday showed that while early voting has declined compared to 2020, the rate remains higher than it did in the years before the coronavirus pandemic. More than half of registered voters say they have already voted or plan to vote before November 5, declining from 64 percent in 2020 to 54 percent in 2024.
Gallup conducted the poll between October 14 to 27 and found that 70 percent of voters say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting,” marking a significant jump from the 56 percent in March who said the same, but matching the roughly 71 percent in August.
More striking is the divide between the two parties, with 77 percent of Democrats saying they are more enthusiastic compared to 67 percent of Republicans. This marks a drop on both sides compared to Gallup polling from September, which found 80 percent of Democrats were more enthusiastic compared to 75 percent of Republicans.
The newest numbers roughly match the 2020 numbers, also released at the end of October that year, which found 75 percent of Democrats or Dem-leaning independents felt more enthusiastic compared to 66 percent Republican.
Both numbers are the highest they’ve been since the President Barack Obama years, where the Democrat swept in on a 76 percent enthusiasm compared to 61 percent among Republicans, or when he won despite a surge in enthusiasm for Mitt Romney with 73 percent compared to 61 percent for the Democrats.
The 2016 election had a very narrow difference, with only 53 percent of Republicans enthusiastic compared to 50 percent for Democrats.
Gallup noted that its enthusiasm measure “has not been a strong predictor of turnout, historically, but may relate to how positively Republicans and Democrats feel about their respective candidates, including their chance of winning.”
Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “By Election Day, President Trump will have gone 70+ days in a row with multiple campaign events from coast to coast — and between now and Nov. 5, he will visit every battleground state at least once and is even expanding the traditional map.
“With him as our example, staff members, volunteers and MAGA supporters in every state are working harder than ever to win so we can begin the process of reversing the failure of Kamala Harris. We have a broad and diverse coalition of a united GOP, disaffected Democrats and independents, and we all know that President Trump’s common-sense agenda for working men and women is resonating. Data so far reflects that, but we will not stop fighting until the polls close.”
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaigns by email on Thursday afternoon.
Both sides have looked for any positive sign of an advantage as national polling averages continue to narrow.
Harris holds a 1.4-point lead over Trump according to aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s average, while RealClearPolitics has found a 0.5-point advantage for the former president.
FiveThirtyEight has vital swing states standing at even odds for Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Wisconsin and Michigan have a 1-point lead for Harris, and North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona have 1- to 2-point leads for Trump.
RealClearPolitics has a marked Trump advantage in all swing states except for Michigan and Wisconsin, which Harris leads by a slender 0.4 and 0.2, respectively.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly told Newsweek in an emailed statement: “President Trump is a candidate for ALL Americans which is why he is winning or tied in every battleground—his message resonates with voters across the country.
“As CNN reported, for the first time since 1984, more Americans now identify as Republicans because Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party’s dangerously liberal policies have failed America. Harris broke our economy, border, and peace around the world, but President Trump will fix it.”
The Gallup poll was based on a sample of around 1,000 voting-age adults via telephone interviews, in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Update 10/31/24, 3:55 p.m. ET: This story was updated with statements from the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee.